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Efficiency Data Correlations
Updated January 30, 2023


Some efficiency data ratings are more strongly correlated to winning and losing than others. The table below outlines the relationships between end of year ratings with same season (retrodictive) performance and next season performance. W% represents the winning percentage in head to head matchups of teams with stronger ratings than their opponents. CW represents the correlation of team ratings to winning percentage against FBS opponents. CM represents the correlation of the ratings delta between teams in head to head matchups with the scoring margin result of those matchups. CR represents the correlation of the rating with the same rating the following year.

 

Overall Team and Schedule Ratings

  

Retrodictive

  

Next Season
Rating Definition   W% CW CM   W% CW CM CR
FEI Opponent adjusted possession efficiency   .792 .826 .607   .674 .469 .339 .725
NDE Net drive efficiency   .770 .915 .523   .648 .475 .289 .587
NPD Net points per drive   .768 .921 .537   .652 .482 .288 .600
NAY Net available yards percentage   .755 .886 .506   .647 .473 .285 .596
NPP Net yards per play   .742 .844 .480   .643 .460 .271 .578
EWR Elite win rating   .805 .951 .464   .642 .457 .272 .554
GWR Good win rating   .819 .898 .484   .652 .453 .312 .638
AWR Average win rating   .821 .859 .496   .658 .441 .331 .687
ELS Strength of schedule (elite team perspective)   .589 .236 .207   .579 .177 .208 .619
GLS Strength of schedule (good team perspective)   .602 .257 .263   .588 .200 .261 .740
ALS Strength of schedule (average team perspective)   .627 .283 .275   .596 .207 .264 .745
 
 

Offense Ratings

  

Retrodictive

  

Next Season
Rating Definition   W% CW CM   W% CW CM CR
OFEI Opponent adjusted offensive drive efficiency   .722 .710 .433   .632 .378 .257 .583
ODE Offensive drive efficiency   .705 .712 .395   .618 .348 .209 .491
OPD Offensive points per drive   .715 .747 .413   .628 .370 .220 .504
OAY Offensive available yards percentage   .692 .689 .387   .614 .339 .191 .488
OPP Offensive yards per play   .680 .646 .367   .612 .330 .163 .478
OTD Offensive touchdown rate   .702 .708 .389   .618 .351 .215 .480
OVD Offensive value drive rate   .696 .687 .381   .622 .337 .190 .492
OFD Offensive first down rate   .659 .587 .333   .597 .287 .131 .390
OBD Offensive busted drive rate   .629 .484 .263   .581 .263 .106 .293
OTO Offensive turnover rate   .615 .396 .187   .555 .137 .062 .238
OLD Offensive points per drive (long field position)   .644 .514 .268   .591 .260 .155 .309
OMD Offensive points per drive (medium field position)   .688 .664 .366   .609 .321 .199 .443
OSD Offensive points per drive (short field position)   .644 .517 .265   .586 .242 .143 .214
O20 Offensive available yards percentage (to opp 20)   .685 .674 .382   .610 .331 .183 .471
O40 Offensive available yards percentage (to opp 40)   .673 .640 .362   .604 .319 .168 .428
O60 Offensive available yards percentage (to own 40)   .649 .556 .309   .596 .282 .135 .342
O4+ Offensive drives of at least 4 yards per play   .677 .644 .363   .610 .330 .180 .451
O7+ Offensive drives of at least 7 yards per play   .679 .625 .343   .609 .304 .183 .455
O10+ Offensive drives of at least 10 yards per play   .661 .571 .312   .597 .283 .178 .408
 
 

Defense Ratings

  

Retrodictive

  

Next Season
Rating Definition   W% CW CM   W% CW CM CR
DFEI Opponent adjusted defensive drive efficiency   .715 .665 .434   .632 .393 .276 .640
DDE Defensive drive efficiency   .700 .686 .401   .615 .379 .238 .534
DPD Defensive points per drive   .706 .714 .420   .619 .396 .183 .544
DAY Defensive available yards percentage   .691 .665 .385   .615 .386 .132 .553
DPP Defensive yards per play   .679 .618 .356   .606 .361 .089 .532
DTD Defensive touchdown rate   .703 .690 .408   .614 .378 .190 .535
DVD Defensive value drive rate   .690 .662 .392   .610 .380 .172 .540
DFD Defensive first down rate   .649 .549 .315   .592 .321 .034 .419
DBD Defensive busted drive rate   .637 .492 .256   .593 .265 .161 .344
DTO Defensive turnover rate   .616 .410 .191   .558 .209 .111 .192
DLD Defensive points per drive (long field position)   .628 .454 .240   .571 .248 .130 .258
DMD Defensive points per drive (medium field position)   .685 .636 .361   .607 .363 .175 .472
DSD Defensive points per drive (short field position   .618 .433 .227   .565 .243 .084 .221
D20 Defensive available yards percentage (to own 20)   .683 .645 .368   .614 .380 .109 .536
D40 Defensive available yards percentage (to own 40)   .672 .610 .343   .611 .360 .082 .497
D60 Defensive available yards percentage (to opp 40)   .651 .534 .292   .596 .310 .049 .406
D4+ Defensive drives of at least 4 yards per play   .670 .606 .349   .602 .357 .112 .489
D7+ Defensive drives of at least 7 yards per play   .673 .600 .344   .604 .348 .165 .502
D10+ Defensive drives of at least 10 yards per play   .644 .537 .313   .591 .309 .157 .442
 
 

Special Teams and Field Position Ratings

  

Retrodictive

  

Next Season
Rating Definition   W% CW CM   W% CW CM CR
STR Special teams rating   .611 .434 .216   .579 .255 .151 .349
KRE Kickoff return efficiency   .569 .233 .130   .544 .168 .058 .292
KE Kickoff efficiency   .582 .284 .174   .560 .140 .136 .320
PRE Punt return efficiency   .545 .165 .094   .531 .139 .070 .263
PE Punt efficiency   .557 .198 .097   .540 .075 .060 .245
FGE Field goal efficiency   .540 .161 .079   .532 .057 .060 .129
OFG Opponent field goal efficiency   .502 .008 .016   .498 .064 .005 .069
OFP Offensive starting field position   .635 .488 .254   .588 .292 .053 .379
DFP Defensive starting field position   .648 .523 .292   .592 .251 .074 .422
NFP Net starting field position   .659 .619 .313   .600 .331 .195 .381